Air Cargo Forecast 2024: IATA Predicts 4.5% Growth Amid Rate Pressure and Revenue Shifts

In 2024, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) anticipates a 4.5% increase in air cargo demand, fueled by a projected 3.5% rise in global trade. Despite a 3.8% decline in airfreight demand this year, IATA foresees growth, attributing it to the sector's recent downturn. Regionally, cargo demand is expected to vary: African carriers at 1.5%, Asia Pacific at 3.6%, Europe at 4.1%, Latin America at 7.7%, Middle East at 12.3%, and North America at 2.1%. However, IATA predicts a 17.3% year-on-year decrease in cargo revenues in 2024, amounting to $111.4 billion, driven by falling yields and increased belly capacity. Despite the decline, cargo revenues are projected to be 11% higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2019. This year, cargo revenues are expected to be 34.8% lower than 2022, standing at $134.7 billion. The industry's share of total airline revenues is expected to be 13% in 2024, mirroring the 2019 figure of 12%.