Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK) has revealed its outlook for marine cargo movement and supply-demand balance for shipping. The driving force of dry bulk cargo will change from iron ore and coal to minor bulk. Crude oil imports will be driven by emerging Asian countries other than China. As for dry bulk, the actual average growth rate from 2010 to 2008 is compared with the estimated average growth rate from 2008 to 2008. Iron ore and coal will drop from 4.3% to -0.7% and from 2.3% to -1.7%, respectively, while minor bulk will increase from 2.2% to 2.8%. In the outlook for shipping supply and demand through 2012, iron ore will turn negative in 2010 and continue to decline. The supply-demand outlook for iron ore will continue to decline after turning negative in 2010, and the supply-demand outlook for coal, both coking coal and thermal coal, will decline steadily. This is in contrast to minor bulk commodities such as steel, cement, and nonferrous metal ores, which will continue to increase year by year. Crude oil imports will continue to increase at a high pace through 30 years, mainly in India and other Southeast and South Asian countries, with an average annual growth rate of 5.9% in India and 5.3% in the rest of Asia (excluding India, China, Japan, and South Korea) from 20 to 30 years, which is outstandingly high compared to other regions. Europe and Japan will reduce their imports over the next decade. In the U.S., imports will remain steady as highly competitive Gulf Coast oil refineries will continue to use imported crude oil.
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